I was recently asked by a UK fund manager what factors might shape the industry in the next 10 years. Thinking back to what I might have said in 2007 if I had been asked that question then, and the developments that have taken place to the present day, I think I would have needed a much better crystal ball than the one I owned at the time.
So fresh from a recent expensive purchase on e-bay, here are a few predictions that my new crystal ball is putting forward over the next 10 years.
In the aviation industry we are very familiar with the feeling of waking up, checking our phones and immediately seeing a news bulletin that will have a direct impact on our work. However that said, 2017 has been particularly rife with these stories (airberlin, Alitalia etc.), and none of them have been good news. In this article we dig into two of the most recent news stories – Monarch and Ryanair – and employ RDC’s unique data to provide a new angle on the big headlines.
Well that was a relief! After a dismal Q1, things have taken a turn for the better in Q2, with Easter adding some sparkle to the numbers reported by our group of LCCs. Airlines do tend to go on a bit about Easter having a significant impact on their numbers, yet the comparison between the first two quarters of this year and last do seem to bear this out. After all, a two or three week holiday period spaced nicely between Christmas and the Summer offers up almost a month of nice prices in an otherwise unattractive part of the year. So not surprisingly, the lack of Easter in the first quarter dragged the quarter down to be worse than it otherwise would have been. And so consequently, the appearance of Easter in the second quarter has made this quarter look artificially better than it deserved. And so to some numbers.
On the 1st of September 2017, the Scottish regional airline Loganair will cease its franchise agreement with Flybe and begin operating as a wholly independent airline for the first time in nearly 25 years. Flybe, seemingly upset by this decision, has announced a partnership with Eastern Airways to operate half a dozen competing routes with Loganair. These are thin routes designed primarily to provide “lifeline” links to remote communities – they surely cannot support two competing airlines, and an awful lot of money will be lost in the process of finding that out.
June 2017 has seen LCC fares across Europe decrease by 7% compared to June last year. This is also the first month since February 2016 where fares 1 week before travel have fallen further than the average, suggesting that the business-market “bubble” may finally have burst.