Whilst Apex details fares at -180 days, -90 days, and -30 days before departure, I focused on -7 days — the critical last-chance saloon to drive passenger volume. Incidentally, if all has gone well, this is an airline's last chance to drive a fare premium.
Key Findings
Apex supports Ryanair's commentary. The late booking market is a challenge.
Average fares in the seven days before departure during Q1 were 23% lower than in the same period in 2023, suggesting that Ryanair was working hard to close a gap in booked passengers during this crucial trading period.
Ryanair: Network Average Fare 7 Days before departure. (excl. Government Tax)
With the network load factor down one percentage point to 94% versus the prior year, perhaps more could have been done in earlier booking periods…though Apex data suggests -30 days fares had similarly aggressive discount levels versus the previous year.
Country-Level Insights
I used Apex to assess these variances at a country level (largest markets only) to understand how this looks across the network.
Markets such as France, the Netherlands, Morocco, and Sweden appear the least discounted, suggesting stronger-than-average performance.
- Leading leisure markets such as Spain/Canary Islands and Greece are discounted by up to 25% compared to last year.
- High-cost Germany is approximately 38% discounted, which likely does not bode well for future development in the German market.
-7 Day Average Fare, Q1 FY25 Vs Q1 FY24, By Leading Country Markets
Do you need help explaining this outlook and what it might mean to your management? Apex can present this commentary for your airport, helping you understand how your market and route network performs for your partner airlines.
Banner image by Ryanair
