For the winter season ahead (November 2026 to March 2027), the average net fare seen 180 days before departure is €141, 15% higher than last winter (€123). That follows a summer season priced 7% below the year before. By quarter, Q4 2026 is priced at €152, 9% above Q4 2025, after three quarters each priced 6% to 8% below 2025. Much of the increase likely reflects higher fuel costs as airline hedges roll off, rather than stronger demand.
The 180-day fare is what airlines are asking six months before a flight departs. It shows how carriers are pricing a season before most seats are sold, which makes it an early read on where fares are heading. This analysis covers economy fares only and uses net fares, excluding government taxes, from RDC Aviation's Apex Fares Data for routes to and from Germany.
Key findings
- Winter 2026/27 is up 15% - The winter season is priced at €141, against €123 for winter 2025/26 and €125 for winter 2024/25.
- Summer 2026 was down 7% - The summer season averaged €139, against €149 in 2025 and €153 in 2024. Many of those fares were on sale before fuel prices rose.
- Winter is currently priced above summer - Winter 2026/27 is currently priced higher (€141) than the fares available for summer 2026 (€139), where in the previous three years winter sat 11% to 18% below the summer before it.
- The fourth quarter turns higher - Q4 2026 is priced at €152, 9% above Q4 2025 and 14% above Q4 2024, and Q1 2027 is 17% above Q1 2026.
- Long-haul drives the winter rise - North America is up 32% and Asia 22% on last winter, while Europe and the Middle East are up 3%.
- Costs, not just demand, are behind the rise - Jet fuel is around 70% higher than in 2025 and European fuel hedges roll off into 2027, and so with higher fares come lower load factors and less profitability.
- Fewer flights add to the pressure - Departures are down 4% for winter 2026/27 and seats down 2%, with the cuts concentrated in Europe.
The 180-day net fare by quarter
RDC Aviation Apex Fares Data, queried 14 Oct 2026 · routes to/from Germany · seat-weighted, same 58 airlines throughout
Chart 1: 180-day economy net fare by quarter, routes to and from Germany, 2024-Q1 2027. Source: RDC Aviation's Apex
The 2026 line runs below both earlier years for the first three quarters, then rises above them in the fourth. Q1 2027 (diamond) is priced above the first quarter of every earlier year.
The outlook by quarter
The fourth quarter of 2026 is the first quarter in the three years where fares are priced above both earlier years.
Table 1: 180-day economy net fare by quarter, routes to and from Germany, 2024-2027. Source: RDC Aviation's Apex
Q1 2027 is also 10% above Q1 2025 and 4% above Q1 2024, making it the highest first quarter of the period.
Three weaker quarters
Through the first three quarters of 2026, the 180-day net fare stayed below both earlier years. The peak summer quarter has softened each year, from €163 in Q3 2024 to €157 in 2025 and €149 in 2026, a fall of 9% over two years.
Summer and winter
Winter fares had drifted lower for two years before jumping for 2026/27, while summer fares have fallen each year.
Table 2: Average economy net fare by season, routes to and from Germany, 2023-2026. Source: RDC Aviation's Apex
Winter 2026/27 is 15% above winter 2025/26 and is currently priced higher than the fares that were available for summer 2026, the first time in the period that winter has been priced above the summer before it.
Timing explains part of the gap. A 180-day fare for summer 2026 was set between October 2025 and March 2026, so most of those fares were on sale before fuel prices rose sharply from late February 2026. Winter 2026/27 fares were set from May 2026 onwards, after the increase, so they are more likely to reflect the higher fuel costs.
Long-haul leads, Europe holds steady
The swing comes mainly from long-haul routes, which fell furthest in summer 2026 and rise most for the winter ahead.
Table 3: 180-day economy net fare by region, summer and winter 2025/26 vs 2026/27. Source: RDC Aviation's Apex
Europe carries most of the seats, so its small changes keep the overall movements moderate. The first quarter shows the same long-haul lead:
Table 4: 180-day economy net fare by region, Q1 2026 vs Q1 2027. Source: RDC Aviation's Apex
Higher fares, higher costs
Higher fares do not necessarily mean stronger demand or more viable routes, because much of the rise reflects higher fuel costs. IATA expects the industry's 2026 fuel bill to reach USD 350 billion, up 39%, with jet fuel averaging USD 152 a barrel, almost 70% above 2025 (IATA, June 2026).
European airlines have been partly shielded by hedging. IATA notes that some locked in up to 70% of their 2026 fuel at pre-crisis prices, and Lufthansa Group reports 81% of its 2026 fuel hedged (Lufthansa Group Q2 2026). As those hedges roll off into 2027, more of the higher cost reaches airlines' unit costs, which fits the sharpest rise appearing in Q1 2027.
Higher fares also cost demand. IATA has cut its 2026 passenger growth forecast to 2.1%, from 4.9%. Lufthansa reports bookings made since the crisis at yields 5% to 12% above last year, but with seat load factors 1 to 4 points lower. The 180-day fares point to airlines pricing to recover costs, with fewer passengers per flight.
Profits are falling despite the higher fares, as fuel cost increases outpace them. IATA expects passenger yields to rise 7% in 2026, yet forecasts industry net profit to roughly halve to USD 23 billion, a 2% margin. Lufthansa Group shows the same pattern: revenue rose 8% in Q2 2026, but adjusted operating profit fell from €870 million to €383 million, with fuel costs about €750 million higher (Lufthansa Group press release).
The aviation tax effect
Because this analysis uses net fares, it shows what airlines keep after government taxes. Germany raised its air passenger tax by around 20% in May 2024. The fall in net fares through 2025 and the first three quarters of 2026 is consistent with airlines absorbing part of that increase to hold ticket prices, rather than passing it on in full.
That pressure has now eased. The government reversed the increase from 1 July 2026, with the long-haul rate falling from €70.83 to €58.06 per passenger (Business Travel News Europe). With no further increases, and airlines free to decide whether to pass the saving on, net fares from Q4 2026 may see some benefit as the saving is kept rather than passed to passengers.
Fewer flights, larger aircraft
Tighter capacity is adding to the pressure on fares. Departures to and from Germany have fallen year on year in every quarter since Q2 2026, by 3% to 5%, after growing 2% to 12% a quarter through 2024. Seats have held roughly flat because airlines are flying larger aircraft, with average seats per departure rising from 179 in Q4 2025 to 184 in Q4 2026.
The cuts are concentrated in Europe, where winter 2026/27 has 3% fewer seats and 6% fewer departures, yet European fares are up only 3%. North America has 1% more seats this winter and fares up 32%, so capacity does not explain the long-haul rise, which points back to fuel costs.
Schedules for Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 are still being finalised, so airlines may yet add or remove flights.
What it means for airlines and airports
- Higher fares are not the same as more viable routes. Fares are rising, but fuel costs may be rising faster, so profits fall rather than improve. Route cases should be tested against cost and load factor, not fare alone.
- Load factors may fall. Higher fares reduce demand, particularly in price-sensitive short-haul leisure markets, which likely leave airlines with higher fares on emptier aircraft.
- Watch the hedge roll-off. As hedges expire through 2027, cost pressure on European airlines rises further, which could push fares higher still or lead to capacity cuts.
- Long-haul and premium absorb increases first. The largest rises are on North American and Asian routes, where airlines expect premium and long-haul travellers to accept higher fares more readily than short-haul leisure travellers (Forbes, June 2026).
- Early fares are a signal, not a result. Fares at 180 days can move as departure approaches, so the outlook should be tracked quarter by quarter as bookings build.
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