In this analysis, I've used RDC’s Apex data to examine Rex's development compared to its peers in the Australian domestic market. Additionally, I explored the airfares Rex commanded in the first half of 2024 in the markets they sought to penetrate.
Chart 1: Illustrates the evolution of seat share among the largest players in the Australian domestic market, specifically on all those markets Rex is serving.
Domestic Market Share on REX Operated Markets 2024
Chart 2: Details the percentage capacity growth or decline in those markets by carrier, comparing figures from 2024 to those from 2019 and 2023.
Capacity Growth on Rex served markets, versus 2019 & vs 2023
Chart 3: Presents the average local fares (JAN-JUN 2024), including taxes, of competing airlines in those leading Australian city markets Rex took aim at.
Average Fare Performance (AUD) JAN-JUN 2024, Leading Australian City Market, served by REX
Between 2019 and 2023, Rex grew seats in competing markets by 160%, much faster than seats in the rest of its network. Rex did not shy from growth in 2024 either, with a further 9% growth on competed markets delivered and planned.
With this growth, Rex increased its share of the Australian domestic market, which it sought to compete in, from 4% in 2019 to 11% in 2024.
In Chart 3 Apex data reveals that Rex has been very much holding its own versus the incumbent carriers, in many cases commanding airfares around those seen at Virgin Australia. Jetstar Airways keeps (most) honest in the market, while Qantas enjoys strong fares.
So, what is going wrong at Rex? Are they coming unstuck because of problems with the legacy fleet suffering major downtime? Is fuel biting? Or are there not enough bums on seats on the new 737 venture? They are trying. The new branding looks great, and our data would suggest that pricing is sensible and that, unlike other disruptors, Rex is not trying to induce a race to the bottom...
Banner image by Ryan via Adobe Stock
